Who’s Stealing Who?

The beverage industry does love a microscope.

Beer watches beer.
Spirits watches spirits.
Wine watches wine.
Energy watches energy.
And lately, everybody seems to be watching THC.

Then something starts growing and we immediately want to know:

WHO IS STEALING WHO?

Is RTD stealing from spirits?
Is NA stealing from alcohol?
Is THC stealing from beverage alcohol?
Is energy stealing from soda?

We can slice share until there’s barely a crumb left.

So we widen the lens.

Beer, wine and spirits become beverage alcohol.

Beverage alcohol becomes beverage.

And when we really want to live dangerously?

Total Beverage.

Look at us, thinking big.

Except the consumer never agreed to play by our category definitions.

“Sweetie, put back the ice cream sandwiches. Salty snacks own Football Sunday.”

Said no wife. Ever.

Consumers don't build occasions one category at a time. They build game day. Dinner. A celebration. A workout. A night on the couch.

And sometimes the shopping cart makes absolutely no sense to anyone but the person pushing it.

My personal “wind down”? Salty French fries and sipping tequila.

Don't look for that one in the traditional occasion playbook.

But that's the point.

THE CONSUMER IS ASSEMBLING THE OCCASION. WE’RE THE ONES ASSIGNING THE CATEGORIES.

So this week, we're putting down the microscope for a minute and taking the satellite view.

CATEGORY → BEVERAGE ALCOHOL → TOTAL BEVERAGE → EVERYTHING WE CONSUME

Because when you zoom out far enough, competitors start looking like neighbors. And suddenly, the block gets a whole lot more valuable.

Let’s zoom out.

The Case

Keep the data. Widen the view.

Market share. Competitive sets. Price tiers. Channels. Depletions. Velocity.

We need all of it.

It tells us what's happening, where we're gaining, where we're losing and where to act.

The data is incredibly valuable. Now give it a bigger frame.

We're suddenly looking at more than $1.8 trillion in U.S. spending across 618 billion eating and drinking occasions.

The data didn't change. The perspective did.

Our businesses need categories.

CONSUMERS DON'T.

They just know what they want from the occasion.

And beverage itself is already giving us a pretty interesting example of what can happen when we add another choice.

What if more choice doesn’t split the occasion—it expands it?

Take non-alcohol.

It would be easy to look at every NA drink sold and ask:

Which alcoholic drink lost?

Except that's not quite how consumers are behaving.

According to NIQ, 47% of U.S. on-premise visitors mix alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks within the same occasion.

And 93% of non-alcohol buyers also purchase alcohol.

Moderation isn't always:

ALCOHOL → NOTHING

Sometimes it's:

ALCOHOL → NA → ALCOHOL

Appropriately named: zebra striping.

It doesn't prove they're consuming more beverages or spending more money.

But it does tell us something important:

THE ADDITION CHANGED THE BEHAVIOR.

Which makes me wonder:

WHAT ELSE ARE WE MISSING WHILE WE MEASURE WHO STOLE WHAT?

The Gain

Let’s go visit the neighbors.

Beverage isn't the only house on the block.

So let's snoop on the neighbors.

Starting with snacks.

Health didn’t kill the potato chip.

Wellness has changed the snack aisle.

It just didn't evict the potato chip.

U.S. snacking has reached roughly $231 billion, up 3.2% year over year, and 55% of U.S. shoppers now eat three or more snacks a day—nine points higher than in 2021.

Consumers didn't replace indulgence with wellness.

THEY JUST MADE ROOM FOR BOTH.

More choices. More reasons to snack.

Which raises a pretty interesting question for us:

ARE WE BUILDING MORE REASONS TO DRINK?

Soda kept adding reasons to drink it.

ORIGINAL → DIET → ZERO → REAL SUGAR → FUNCTIONAL

Every time the consumer changed, soda didn't blow up the old business.

It added another door.

This year, Pepsi took Prebiotic Cola nationwide—30 calories, 5 grams of sugar and 3 grams of prebiotic fiber.

SAME CATEGORY. ANOTHER DOOR.

Beverage alcohol is doing some of the same:

FULL STRENGTH → MID-STRENGTH → NO ALCOHOL

Under the microscope, some of that can look like substitution.

ZOOM OUT, AND SOME OF IT MAY BE ADDITION.

Bold & New

What does addition look like?

Add a benefit?

DORITOS PROTEIN

Doritos didn't suddenly decide to become a health food.

Thank God.

Doritos Protein adds 10 grams of protein per 1-ounce serving to something consumers already love.

DON'T ABANDON THE REASON PEOPLE CHOOSE YOU. GIVE THEM ANOTHER ONE.

Add an occasion?

DIAGEO 20%

Why should the choices be full strength or zero?

Diageo is testing another answer.

In the UK, it has launched 20% ABV versions of Gordon's, Smirnoff and Captain Morgan.

Moderation doesn't necessarily have to mean abstention.

LESS ALCOHOL. ANOTHER CHOICE. ANOTHER OCCASION.

Currently being tested in the UK.

Cross a category?

ATHLETIC × GRAZA

Athletic Brewing and olive-oil brand Graza collaborated on Cold Off The Press, a limited-release non-alcoholic pils brewed with extra-virgin olive oil and lemon.

An NA brewer and an olive-oil brand walk into a bar...

And somehow it makes perfect sense.

BECAUSE FOOD AND BEVERAGE HAVE ALWAYS DEFINED MEMORABLE OCCASIONS.

Different products. Same lesson:

DON'T JUST FIGHT FOR THE EXISTING OCCASION. GIVE PEOPLE ANOTHER REASON TO CHOOSE YOU.

The Opportunity

What if we sold the occasion, too?

We've all seen the Chardonnay stacked by the seafood counter.

Lovely. Also, not exactly revolutionary.

Cross-merchandising isn't new.

But we tend to stop at the obvious pairing.

Fashion figured this out a long time ago.

Walk into a department store and you don't find every pair of pants in the building together—yoga pants next to silk trousers next to men's dress pants.

That would be insane.

We shop fashion around where we're going.

Work. The gym. Dinner. A weekend away.

And the top, pants, shoes and accessories show up together because we're not really shopping for individual pieces.

We're shopping for the outfit.

THE OUTFIT IS THE OCCASION.

What if we applied more of that thinking to what we eat and drink?

Instead of:

CHARDONNAY + SEAFOOD

Think:

DINNER TONIGHT.

Wine. Sparkling water. Prepared seafood. A side. Cheese. Dessert.

Don't just pair two products. Help solve the whole occasion.

NIQ reports that 78% of U.S. off-premise alcohol purchases are planned, with purchases also linked to same-day consumption.

HE'S SHOPPING A TRADITIONAL OCCASION. WHY ARE WE MAKING HIM WALK FOUR AISLES TO DO IT?

Maybe the sparkling water three aisles away isn't stealing from the wine.

MAYBE IT’S THE SHOES TO YOUR DRESS. THE BOOTS TO YOUR JEANS.

And maybe the opportunity isn't to own every piece.

IT’S TO COMPLETE THE OUTFIT—AND GIVE HER MORE PLACES TO WEAR IT.

AI Sips

A practical thought starter for your next innovation meeting.

Your next competitor analysis has one rule:

NO COMPETITORS FROM YOUR CATEGORY.

Ask AI:

I sell [PRODUCT] to [CONSUMER] primarily through [CHANNEL].

The primary occasions or needs my product satisfies are [OCCASIONS].

Identify 10 products consumers could choose instead of mine to satisfy those same needs.

Do not include anything from my product category.

For each, explain what consumer need it solves, why it could win the occasion, what I could learn from it about product, positioning, merchandising or price—and whether it could be a potential partner instead of a competitor.

Because the most interesting competitor might not be sitting beside you on the shelf.

IT MIGHT NOT EVEN BE DRINKABLE.

And your best growth partner might be sitting three aisles away.